At the beginning of the season, I wrote an article entitled “The Disappointing Three” for Prose Before Hos, and put up link up on this website in a post called “Miami… Yawn.” For those of you who didn’t read the article, here are the highlights. And for those of you who didn’t read it, go here and read it now!
Okay, the highlights:
1. Miami started the season with a 16-8 record.
2. Seven of their eight losses came to +.500 teams
3. The Heat lost by a bigger margin when James, Wade, and Bosh scored similar amounts of points
4. Only five of their 16 wins came when James was the leading scorer
5. The Heat were 1-4 in games decided by less than three points
6. Miami struggled to take care of the ball, turning it over more than their opponents in every loss
Now it’s March. The Miami Heat have 20 games left until the playoffs. After a recent 3 game losing streak, Miami sits in 3rd place with a 43-19 record. A lot has happened around the league since I wrote that article back in December. But what’s happened in Miami?
Turns out, not much.
True, they’re now at .694 for the season, somewhat above their previous .667 winning percentage. But in comparison to 1st place Boston’s .750 winning percentage, that’s not that great. And it doesn’t hold a candle to the Spurs’ (the 1st place team in the west) .823.
The Heat are only 12-15 against +.500 teams. Let’s remember that in the playoffs, they will be playing only +.500 games. (Except maybe in round 1, as the 8th team in the east, the Indiana Pacers, are currently sitting at .435. But the east is never that competitive anyway.) Their recent three consecutive losses came at the hands of +.500 teams, and their next 9 games are against +.500 teams. They’ve already dropped from 2nd to 3rd place this week. The next ten games could knock them down even further.
They also haven’t improved their outcome in close games. They are 1-7 in games decided by less than three points and 5-12 in games decided by five or fewer. And James still isn’t the one who should be taking the final shot. For example, in their 99-96 loss to the Orlando Magic on Thursday (that’s a three point difference for those of you who can’t do math), James bricked the final three-point shot that would have tied the game in the waning seconds, while Wade stood wide open and watched. Way to draw up a game plan, Spoelstra.
The Heat have also started struggling to hold big leads. Let’s look at their most recent losses. In their loss to the Knicks last Sunday, Miami built a 52-36 lead in the 3rd quarter, only to lose 91-86. Against Orlando on Thursday, Miami was up by TWENTY-FOUR points in the 3rd before the Magic went on a 40-8 run for a come-from-behind win of 99-96.
Their loss to San Antonio on Friday was another story. The Spurs, the number 1 team in the NBA, outscored Miami 36-12 in the 1st quarter, and the Heat were never able to recover. After making a few “runs” to get the lead down to 10 or 12, Miami couldn’t close the deal and lost 125-95. Ouch.
Basically, the Miami Heat of today are very similar to the Miami Heat of December. Dominant in games against lesser opponents, struggling against elite teams. Their chemistry isn’t quite there yet and, frankly, they’re running out of time. The 1st round of the playoffs will probably go off without a hitch, but later rounds could be a problem. Miami will really have to prove themselves to the rest of the elite teams in the league during their next nine games and show that they can run with the big dogs.
Everyone knows how good the Big Two plus Bosh are. The question is can they, and the rest of their mediocre team, get it together and start winning when it matters?
